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We all are waiting for the future. When flying cars replace land and thereby free the roads of choking cities; when a person opens the first space colony and goes to conquer the far horizons of our solar system and beyond; when all of us will become immortal, or at least learn how to create and replace out-of-order organs and limbs, thereby prolonging the life span. Unfortunately, all this is more like a utopia than a reality. Reality, as usual, is much more prosaic and even more cynical. Today, let's talk about the most frustrating and frightening concepts, developments and possible scenarios for our future, witnesses of which may not be us, but our grandsons and great-grandsons.
Everyone can create their own pandemic
Illustrated version of Stephen King's novel "Confrontation"
Earlier this year, the Oxford organization Global Priorities Project compiled a list of catastrophes capable of destroying 10 or more percent of the world's population. And the highest levels of this list, which is not surprising, are artificially created pandemics (read the epidemic of a global scale). Moreover, the authors of the work warn that this can happen in the next five years.
Most of the technologies that can lead to this development of the event are already beginning to emerge. And in this list of technologies, the system of genetic modification CRISPR / cas9 and 3D-bioprinters are rightly recorded. In addition, the basic schemes that can lead to the creation of pandemics are now actually in the public domain. About 10 years ago, futurist Ray Kurzweil and technologist Bill Joy with angry criticism attacked the US Department of Health, which published a full picture of the 1918 flu genome, calling it "incredible stupidity." More recently, a group of scientists also decided to speak out when Nature magazine decided to publish the actual instruction to improve the effectiveness of avian influenza, by mutating into something even more deadly.
The thing is that such information can sooner or later be interested in various radical groups, terrorist groups or sociopathic individuals and create their own viruses.
People who transfer their minds to a computer will actually kill themselves
The character of Ben Kingsley carries his mind into the body of another person in the movie "Beyond / myself"
One of the most radical ideas about the future world is connected with the rejection of perishable human bodies and the transfer of oneself to the digital environment. This is a complete transfer of his mind from the biological brain into a super-powerful supercomputer. This process, however, according to some scientists and researchers, will lead to the complete destruction of the original human essence. In fact, this will become a form of unintentional suicide.
All this is connected with the so-called problem of "continuity of consciousness". Of course, in the future, we will most likely learn to cut, copy and paste the essence of a person and his memories into a digital environment, but the very process of transmitting consciousness will in fact become a means of execution. Neurophysiologists know that memories are themselves stored in the brain in physical shells - neurons. That is, in theory, at the physical level, we will be able to copy these data banks. However, our knowledge of consciousness is still at a primitive level. We still do not understand even how it appears in the brain, not to mention how to transfer it from point A to point B. In addition, it is quite possible that subjective consciousness in general can not be transferred to the digital environment.
Real digitization of the brain and its loading into the digital environment, most likely, will require destructive scanning at the atomic level. An example of this can be teleportation, which is shown in the same movie "Startrek." According to the scientific basis of this film, every time during teleportation the original copy of a person is disassembled into atoms, copied and simultaneously destroyed. The process of transferring the mind can be similar. The original copy will be destroyed and replaced by a digital one, which will still assume that it is the original. But this will be a complete fallacy.
Authoritarianism may return
Hitler knew very well how to play on human fears
With the growing concern and threats to national security, the governments of the countries will sooner or later come to incredibly draconian measures, which, on the one hand, will actually raise the level of national security, but on the other - in fact deprive us of freedom. Over time, many freedoms and civil rights, which we now take for granted (the right to privacy, the right to free travel through one's native country, the right to gather and express one's opinion, the right to freedom of speech, etc.) will go to oblivion.
At the same time, the population, because of the constantly increasing number of terrorist acts, violence and many other factors, will increasingly seek to elect leaders capable and, more importantly, ready to uncompromisingly deal with all external and internal potential threats, even if it puts them under attack many democratic values.
It is the threats to national security that will lead to such changes, and in history there have already been such precedents. Following the attacks of September 11 and subsequent terrorist attacks with the mailing of letters with anthrax powder, the government of the same USA signed an act on state security. This document has been much criticized for its too harsh and radical solutions to problems, but it is it that is an ideal example of what can happen when a nation feels threatened by its security. Now imagine what might happen if a similar 9/11 incident occurs, but with hundreds of thousands or even millions of victims.
Nuclear and biological weapons are the two main possible sources of such events. And the likelihood that small radical groups or even individuals can take over this weapon can only increase the desire of governments and citizens to choose more radical ways of solving these problems, even taking into account the loss of some freedoms.
Private life will be a relic of the past
"Big Brother" follows John Hurt in the film "1984"
We are rapidly approaching the era of ubiquitous observation, a time when, in fact, every aspect of our life will be watched from above. The private life that we know will cease to exist, and it will be replaced by the eyes and ears of "Big Brother".
Governments of countries, in fear of internal and external threats, will increasingly resort to cheap, but high-tech and effective measures and technologies for tracking their citizens. Commercial corporations, fueled by the desire to know everything and everything about their customers, will also not be able to resist such a temptation. Citizens of this obscure society will have no choice but to accept the fact that every detail of their life will now be recorded.
The mechanisms of monitoring society are already beginning to actively take root in our lives. Street cameras, computers, smartphones, tablets are all means that can monitor our daily lives.
If we go even further, then, most likely, government agencies and law enforcement agencies will sooner or later introduce more compact and inconspicuous surveillance devices, including the so-called "clever dust" - self-organizing tiny sensors capable of monitoring virtually everything at once. These tiny particles (essentially nanorobots) will cover the entire Earth and function as a single network, being the eyes and ears of the planet.
Robots will find ways to easily manipulate us
Until the moment when artificial intelligence can realize itself, its programming will be dealt with by individuals and corporations. And we will be much mistaken if we assume that machines are thinking on their own, which, in turn, will open the way to various kinds of manipulation and convictions. So close future sees futurologist and science fiction writer David Breen. According to him, this will lead to the appearance of robots-deceivers.
"Empathy is at the same time one of the most important gifts and curses and weaknesses that a person is endowed with," says Breen.
"For many millennia, people have been developing and improving methods and skills for determining lies, but not one liar has had so many opportunities to train his skills, how many will they have in robots. And after all, all the necessary information base (the ability to simulate voices and facial expressions, a special set of words, etc.) for this we ourselves will put in them, even without understanding it. Their ability to manipulate us will increase so much that only genuine sociopaths can resist, although in time and to them there will be an approach. "
The consequences of climate change will be irreversible
Shot from the movie "Mad Max: The Road of Fury"
Last year, world leaders signed an agreement to reduce the production and use of sources that cause global warming. Aspiration is a laudable, but critical point, we, it seems, have already missed. The consequences of global warming will be felt for hundreds, and possibly thousands, of future years. Since we have already entered the sixth mass extinction period (this is when the extinction rate of species occurs much faster than normal), we run the risk of losing important ecosystems and gradually reducing the diversity of life on Earth.
Climate models show that even if the levels of carbon dioxide unexpectedly begin to decline, the level of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere will continue to heat up our planet for at least several centuries. Our oceans will slowly allocate accumulated carbon dioxide, and our atmosphere will not return to indicators of the pre-industrial era for several centuries. A recent assessment by the international group of experts on climate change suggests that "most of the climate change is already irreversible on a human scale".
Doune Stover, a scientific columnist for The Bulletin writes:
"Melting snow and ice will strip out some parts of the Earth that will absorb more solar radiation, speeding up the process of global warming and reducing the area of ice sheets. Scientists agree that the West Antarctic ice shield has already shrunk to unprecedented levels. As a result, serious disturbances in ocean currents and heat transfer will soon be noted. Oxidation of the oceans will continue and lead to unknown yet consequences for marine life. The melting of the eternal ice and the rising temperature of the ocean floor will lead to the release of methane and greenhouse gases. Over the past 1000 years, there will be severe droughts accompanied by forest fires and additional carbon emissions. Those species that can not quickly adapt to changing conditions will die out. The coastal zones will become unsuitable for life, which, in turn, will also cause a very strong humanitarian crisis. "
The only way to reduce the consequences will be the geoengineering of the planet, but this, in turn, will also create its own difficulties.
The era of antibiotics will come to an end
There is a serious increase in diseases that become unresponsive to antibiotics. Over time, this can evolve into a postantibiotic era, a time when even the most common infections will threaten our lives.
Serious changes in medicine will cause bacteria resistant to antimicrobials. Transplantology will become an incredibly complex, if not impossible, process. Even such simple operations as removal of appendicitis will be very dangerous for life. Older people will start taking pneumonia, as well as other age-related diseases, including cancer.
How much will it get bad? A recent report prepared by the Faculty and the Institute of Actuaries of Great Britain indicates that a new era of antimicrobial-resistant diseases will take up to 10 million people annually by 2050. Therefore, this report often includes such concepts as "antimicrobial apocalypse".
Fortunately, we will not be completely deprived of solutions to this problem. At the moment, scientists are hunting for yet, perhaps, undetected antibacterial compounds. In addition, work is underway to create viruses and vaccines to combat bacteria. In the end, by that time, we may already learn how to create artificial microorganisms that will hunt and destroy problem bacteria and viruses.
Robot killers will become commonplace
"Terminator: Let the Savior Come"
But we got to the scenario of the future from the "Terminator", when everywhere we will operate fully automated paramilitary systems, which without any hesitation will lead the hunt for armed human units.
These systems, known as LAWS (Lethal Autonomous Weapons), do not doubt, are already under development, and it's only a matter of time before they destroy existing weapons, including nuclear weapons. These robotic killing machines are created with only one purpose - to reduce human losses and make wars more humane, but experts fear that these futuristic executioners will sooner or later get out of control and their people will become objects of their hunting.
Of course, such machines will be equipped with security mechanisms and "moral principles," but Wendell Wallach of the Interdisciplinary Center for Bioethics at Yale University believes that it will be difficult to verify, and therefore various software errors that lead to completely unexpected behavior .
"Efficiency and cost will make LAWS systems attractive for both developed countries and non-governmental organizations," Wallach said.
"Although countries such as the United States say that these systems will be under strict human control, the country itself is interested, in particular, in underwater systems of LAWS, since it will be very difficult for them to establish communication and intercept control."
"We can witness the beginning of an autonomous nuclear war even before we realize it," Wallach continues.
"This is just one of hundreds of possible scenarios with the use of semi-intelligent military systems that can increase the security risk for humanity long before we can understand what an over-intelligence".
We will lose all our companions
Shot from the film "Gravitation"
Several members of the scientific community are concerned about the probability of a partial or even total loss of control over the artificial satellites of our planet, which may be caused by the Kessler effect (which is very graphically shown in the film "Gravitation") either by a giant solar geomagnetic storm or as a result of a space war.
Without satellites, we lose the opportunity in communication. GPS-systems, as well as equipment running on their basis, will become completely useless pieces of garbage. Space synchronization will become irrelevant, which will affect many areas, from financial exchanges to energy networks.
It is necessary to take into account such a risk of development of events in the future and be prepared for this. To begin with, we should increase the reliability of our infrastructure and, possibly, even reduce our dependence on these very satellites, which put us in a very dangerous situation. In addition, one should seriously think about orbital ecology. Year by year low low-Earth orbit and geostationary orbit are becoming increasingly cluttered by our satellites and various space debris. If we do not start cleaning this mess, we can soon lose access to the cosmos in general.
We will never get in touch with extraterrestrials
We are all used to believe that during the next week, or rather the millennium, we will make contact with extraterrestrial civilizations. The fact is that, most likely, this will never happen. And all because in fact no one sends us any signals and does not move from one star to another in search of new places for conquest.
The continuing Great Silence is no accident. Our galaxy is very ancient, so by this time we should have already come into contact with extraterrestrial intelligence, if there was one. If you think that the search for aliens is only carried out within the framework of such large projects as SETI, then you are deeply mistaken. In fact, the whole Earth is covered with antennas and satellite devices directed to the far corners of our space. And yet all that we hear is complete silence.
The fact that we have not yet met any aliens can be a serious indicator of our future. Возможно, существует какой-то технологический барьер, преодолеть который пока не представляется возможным. Возможно, этим барьером является сверхинтеллект или военизированные нанотехнологии. Возможно, пришельцы просто параноики и ксенофобы, старающиеся всеми силами не показывать своего существования на случай враждебных соседей. Еще одним объяснением может являться то, что разумная жизнь выбрала путь исследования бесконечных реалий киберпространства вместо холодного и мертвого космоса. А возможно, мы на самом деле одни в этом бескрайнем космосе.
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